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The Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources recently issued Decree No. 1772 K/20/MEM/2018 on the Amount of Cost of Generation Provision (commonly referred to by its Indonesian acronym, BPP) of PLN in 2017 ("2017 BPP Decree"), which with effect from 1st April 2018 supersedes Decree of Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources No. 1404 K/20/MEM/2017 on the Amount of BPP of PLN in 2016 ("2016 BPP Decree").
The BPP figures represent the cost to PLN of procuring power from the different systems/sub-systems listed in the 2017 BPP Decree. PLN's cost of procuring power is a combination of (i) the costs of PLN generating this power itself through PLN's own power generation plants, and (ii) the cost of PLN procuring power from third party suppliers (such as Independent Power Producers (IPPs) and power rental companies).
The Indonesian Government has set tariff ceilings for both coal fired projects and renewable energy projects based on the applicable BPP at the time. For example, if a developer wanted to sign a Power Purchase Agreement with PLN today for a solar project in Aceh, the maximum tariff permitted is 9.469 cents USD/kWh, being 85% of the Aceh BPP (which is 11.14 cents USD/kWh).
Under applicable regulations, the Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources is required annually to publish the annual BPP numbers for the systems and sub- systems across the country. The 2017 BPP Decree contains these figures for the 2017 calendar year. The figures are to be used to determine the tariff ceilings in the period from 1st April 2018 to 31st March 2019 (by which time a new set of annual BPP numbers for the 2018 calendar year will be published).
In general and nationally, the 2017 BPP Decree shows an increase in the average BPP, although some areas such as West Sumatra, South and Central Kalimantan, southern Sulawesi, and some areas in Papua have shown decreases in the BPP.
The national average BPP increased to 7.66 cent USD/kWh or 1,025 IDR/kWh (approximately a 4% increase on last year). We have set out in Annex 1 a comparison of the 2016 and 2017 BPP numbers.
The increase in average BPP is caused by the increase of primary energy price (gas, coal and oil-based fuel) between 2016 and 2017, as well as the weakening exchange rate of IDR against USD. The government is now looking to cap the price on primary energy for electricity for public use, as can be seen from the issuance of MEMR Decree No. 1395 K/30/MEM/2018, which caps coal prices for public interest electricity supply.
It is worth noting that aside from increases or decreases in the BPP numbers between 2016 and 2017, there are some changes in the way in which the grid systems are defined in the 2017 BPP Decree:
First, unlike in the 2016 BPP Decree, the 2017 BPP Decree no longer sets out the average BPP for each island. For example, the average BPP for 2016 in Sumatra was 8.98 cent USD/kWh or 1,194 IDR/kWh. The 2017 BPP Decree no longer sets an island-wide BPP value. The same goes for the other islands (Java, Bali, Kalimantan, Sulawesi, etc.).
These changes appear to be directed at removing some of the confusion that previously existed as to which BPP should apply to a particular project.
As is the case with the 2016 BPP Decree, the 2017 BPP Decree provides that the BPP for any particular area not yet supplied with electricity by PLN, or any area that does not have an average BPP determination, will be equal to the highest average BPP provided in the 2017 BPP Decree (which is 20.00 cent USD/kWh or 2,677 IDR/kWh).
As mentioned above, this newly published average BPP is valid until 31st March 2019. If no new average BPP is published after 31st March 2019, the average BPP in the 2018 Decree will continue to be valid until a new average BPP is published.
The good news for a large number of developers is that the higher coal prices over the last year have resulted in developers being able to bid higher tariffs for projects than they would have had to bid on the same project last year.
However, it does highlight the flaw in the tariff ceiling system. If a developer is looking to sign a 20-year Power Purchase Agreement on a solar project in Halmahera on 28th March 2018 (when the 2016 BPP Decree applied), the tariff ceiling that it is required to meet would be 10.761 cents USD/kWh. The same Power Purchase Agreement on the same project signed five days later on 2nd April 2018 would give rise to a tariff ceiling of 17 cents USD/kWh. The difference in the project's fate would be largely driven by coal and diesel price changes from year to year and whether you get lucky on the USD/IDR exchange rate from year to year.
This logical conflict between determining the viability of a 20-year long term project by looking backwards 12 months at fuel prices and currency impacts will give rise to these types of anomalies, and may continue to result in a particular project being economically viable on one particular day of the year, and not economically viable on another day of the year.
Hadiputranto, Hadinoto & Partners, Member of Baker & McKenzie International - 5th April 2018
Capital: Jakarta
Population: 259 million (2016)
Currency: Indonesian Rupiah
Nominal GDP: $936 billion USD (IMF, 2016)
GDP Per Capita: $3,620 USD at Current Prices (IMF, 2016)
GDP Growth: 5.0% (2016)
External Debt: 36.80% of GDP (BI, Q2 2016)
Ease of Doing Business: 91/190 (WB, 2017)
Corruption Index: 90/176 (TI, 2016)
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