China, the second-largest oil consuming country in the world, expected to see a GDP decline to 6.3% (2015F: 6.8%), and as a result, Bahana Securities’ research team expects global petroleum and other liquid fuels to grow by just 1.4mn b/d in 2016 and 2017, flat compared with 2015’s level, in line with the estimate of the Energy Information Administration (EIA).
On 4th December 2015, the government announced its seventh economic stimulus package, aiming to provide incentives for labour-intensive industries, ease certain land-certification processes and reaffirm the existing investment (BKPM) policy for a 3-hour business permit process.
Coupled with economic slowdown and global deflation concerns, the average inflation in Asian and major economies keep decreasing as growth has continued to stall. As a consequence, some Asian nations have already cut their interest rates.
In line with its longstanding commitment to support Indonesia’s continued development, Bahana Pembinaan Usaha Indonesia (Persero) from 21st to 23rd August 2015 participated in BUMN Expo 2015 – an event held as a showcase of state-owned enterprises and their initiatives to contribute to economic growth.
PT Bahana Artha Ventura as a provider of funding for small-scale businesses recognizes that SMEs are a vital component supporting regional economic growth in Bali. The importance of SMEs and the immense potential for their further development motivated Bahana Artha Ventura to pledge its continued support for SMEs in the province.
Given current slower-than-expected government projects, lower commodity prices and a relatively unexciting private consumption trend, Bahana Securities’ esteemed research team expects 2015 GDP growth to reach 5.02% y-y, before improving to 5.28% y-y in 2016, although at a lower level compared to its previous estimate of 5.74%.
Following recent 4Q14 results releases, Bahana Securities has fine-tuned all 95 stocks under its coverage (76% of the total market capitalization of the index) to take into account the most recent operating trends in the marketplace, as described in this latest market analysis from its esteemed research team led by Mr Harry Su.
Concerns about weakness in the rupiah, down nearly 7% ytd, are not unfounded particularly as Indonesia’s private external debt has reached in excess of $160 billion USD, up 13.5% y-y, surpassing the government’s external debt of $134 billion USD. Some 31% or $50 billion USD of these private external debts are short-term, which could cause difficulties for SMEs in servicing their debt repayments.
Beating Bahana Securities’ expectations as well as that of the market, the country’s February Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed further deflation of 0.36% m-m (January: -0.24%), the lowest level in 15 years. February data also showed y-t-d CPI deflation at 0.61%. The last time deflation was recorded for two consecutive months was in March-April 2011.
Bahana Dana Likuid (BDL), one of Bahana TCW Investment Management’s most prominent products, on 4th March 2015 received the prestigious distinction of being named the Best Money Market Fund of 2015 by Investor Magazine. This award was presented in recognition of Bahana Dana Likuid’s +9.03% rate of return over the last year which made it the best performing money market fund in 2014.
The Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry (ESDM) plans to raise coal royalties charged to mining operation permit (IUP) holders by the end of 1Q15. According to ESDM data, coal accounts for about 80% of Indonesia’s mining revenue, and about 25% of Indonesian coal companies are IUP license holders. The move is intended to help meet the revised 2015 state budget (APBNP) non-tax mineral revenue target of 31.7 trillion IDR.
On the back of lower oil prices, President Jokowi has announced a 13% cut in gasoline price from IDR7,600 IDR per liter to IDR6,600, nearly back to square one compared to the price during the SBY regime at IDR6,500 per liter. This move by President Jokowi followed a recent 10.5% cut from IDR8,500 per liter to IDR7,600 on 1 January 2015.
Bahana TCW Investment Management on 14th January 2015 hosted a press conference to put into context Indonesia’s major economic developments over the course of 2014 as well as discuss its market outlook for 2015. Held at the firm’s headquarters in Jakarta, the event marked the release of Bahana TCW’s annual end of year publication comprised of market analysis and investment strategies.
In recognition of their achievements over the year, Bahana Securities on 26th August was named the Best Equity House of 2014 by Alpha Southeast Asia, a prominent regional investment magazine. Ms Novita Lubis as Director of Investment Banking accepted this award on behalf of the company during the 8th Annual Best Financial Institutions Awards, held in tandem with the 4th Annual Corporate Awards in Jakarta
On 11th June 2014 Bahana Securities in partnership with Daiwa Capital Markets hosted Indonesia Corporate Day 2014 – an annual forum providing local and international strategic investors with the opportunity to engage in discussion with leading figures from relevant financial authorities and ministries.
Bahana Securities in its capacity as underwriter successfully conducted an Initial Public Offering (IPO) for Wijaya Karya Beton – a subsidiary of prominent state owned construction firm Wijaya Karya, specialising in precast concrete. The issuing company made available 2.05 billion shares, or a 23.5 percent stake, with the target of raising 1.28 trillion IDR.
